“Key political risks to watch in Iran”
Iran • Israel • United States
“President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has derided a new wave of sanctions against Iran as ineffective, but, as the measures bite, he has said the Islamic Republic is willing to return to talks about its nuclear program. Iran has always said its nuclear activities are peaceful, but that has not assuaged fears that its real motivation is seeking an atomic bomb, something the United States, and its ally Israel, say they could not tolerate. So the risk of military action against Iran — something which would have major repercussions on the global oil trade — remains, despite renewed efforts to seek a diplomatic solution. At home, Ahmadinejad has largely re-asserted political control, with a crackdown on the opposition which challenged his 2009 re-election in the streets. But economic problems might stir further unrest. As well as the new sanctions, Ahmadinejad’s policy to phase-out subsidies on staples such as fuel and food — starting in September — is also likely to have a big economic impact. Both might already be having at least a psychological effect on Iranians who complain of rising inflation, despite official figures to the contrary, and growing queues at filling stations, possibly due to fears that sanctions will cause gasoline shortages”
Click here for an outline of the main political risks for Iran: